ETH (+880bps) and SOL (+640bps) plowing ahead with BTC only +130bps on the day. If we assume Back/whale sold 50k BTC, market was able to absorb almost $6bn of BTC in 24-48hrs. While CTC demand/flows are real and price-insensitive, and the OTC-nature of this selling smooths out the downticks somewhat, this ultimately pulled forward a lot of demand. Additionally, it’s not crazy to assume that Galaxy, having full visibility into the execution, would have kept the last clip as they effectively created the downticks/local bottom. While they have substantial balance sheet to warehouse this risk, I expect the last clip (10-30%) to trickle out over the next few days. We saw a similar dynamic last year when the German gov’t sold their BTC: much of this hit the books of counterparties with a shorter time horizon/softer hands and it took some time for that flow to recycle through the mkt and find a longer-term home which extended the time we spent in the lower half of the summer range. All this means we could see BTC chopsolidate for a week until this risk moves its way through. Until then, I believe ETH and SOL will continue their relative outperformance. h/t @plur_daddy for talking through these points with me

If you're not already long, this is the dip you're waiting for. Maybe you get 118-119 but if it goes substantially below, we likely don't have enough real strength to take out 130+.

In the past, I have made no secret of my disdain for Chef Robinhood's famous motto, "Anyone can trade." But I realize, only now do I truly understand what he meant. Not everyone can become a great trader; but a great trader can come from anywhere.

i was caught offsides on this SOL move. missed the headline last night and didn't react quickly enough - cut most of my short btwn 147 and 152 (built it btwn 143 and 147). think more interesting opps to reshort down the line.

Topped up my SOL short around 143.3. Book is currently 55% long BTC, 30% short SOL, 20% net short alts (-35% vs +15%)

Summary of WSJ scoop on Trump Fed Chair process. 1. Candidates are Warsh, Hassett, Bessent, Malpass, Waller. 2. In recent weeks, Trump has considered appointing new Chair as soon as Sep/Oct given his displeasure with Powell. 3. Sounds like Warsh's hawkish history is hurting him. Hassett told people he isn't interested. Malpass has dovish views on record but Trump doesn't see the right look for TV (this was part of why he chose Powell). Waller has tactical appeal but Trump doesn't know him well. 4. Even though the article doesn't set it up initially, reading through the puts and takes on each candidate, I emerged with the sense that Bessent is the most likely candidate. Trump trusts him, he is a certified pro, and clearly is willing to follow Trump's agenda. This is a bullish factor for the market.

Great post from @Cheshire_Cap on whether BTC is ready to take out the highs. To build on this, two bullish factors I'm looking at are: 1. Sheer strength of BTC off the bottom with no signs of fatigue thus far. This curvy grind up (upwards consolidation) reminds me of late Oct/early Nov 23. 2. Emerging datapoints on Fed reaction function, with Powell messaging to Trump that getting trade deals done helps clear the way for a rate cut, since that would reduce uncertainty around tariff-driven inflation. And then two factors supporting BTC remaining in the range: 1. TGA refill enters the picture when the BBB gets done and lifts the debt ceiling, which would be a drag on liquidity. I've done a deeper analysis around this and will post about it within the next few days. 2. An argument for seasonality mattering more is that BTC is being driven by large buyers including treasury companies and mystery entities (possibly Middle Eastern and Asian capital). It's possible execs at these entities would take time off for the summer and be less engaged during the peak vacation window. A lot of natives have been selling into the rally so if it does break out there will be meaningful chasing. Remaining in the range is the central case. The X factor on breaking up near term is the level of aggression and level of powder these large entities are willing to bring to the table here. We don't have much visibility, so all we can do is play the odds.

discretionary view, quantitative portfolio for thematic brypto long/short probs one of the "harder" articles to write about (skill issue for me) but I write to level myself up so gotta give it a try as usual giving access to some who RT ref @macrocephalopod @__paleologo

If we're mutuals and you're in NY this week/next and want to meet, DM me!

We know exactly where the so-called " $HYPE longers" are hiding. They are an easy target. We are not going to take them out (Liquidate!), at least for now. But we don't want more deposits or bridges to a HyperEVM. Thank you for your attention to this matter!