In the 7th episode of the Hundred Year Pivot podcast series, @ttmygh and I speak with financial historian and award-winning journalist @chancellor_e about the final phase of the Debt Supercycle, and the coming era of capital controls and currency crises.

Must watch interview: Bessent reveals he has breakfast with Powell every week, and also reveals that if the Fed does nothing, the Treasury has a "big toolkit" and could "up the Treasury buybacks" (to prop up Treasuries, in lieu of QE).

The dollar system in an age of market-based finance - financial globalization beyond banks (The World Economy Now, July 2025)

The US lost its exorbitant privilege a decade ago, when 10-year Treasury yield rose above $-denominated yields in the rest of the G10 (lhs). Most likely reason is because US debt accumulation is way faster (rhs, black line). The US is playing with fire...

People talk a lot about M2, they talk a lot about global liquidity, but few mention how they are pretty much both the same... @crossbordercap will want to kill me for saying this, but I think they are both useful and they can be used to cross-reference each other... E.g. last month M2 was showing 'higher' before the higher liquidity revisions hit the printing press. This correlation between M2 and price wont last forever, but while it does, bears will get destroyed

This is my episode with @crossbordercap We discuss: -How are in the late innings of the liquidity cycle -How policymakers are trying to prolong it -How exactly a weakening dollar boosts global liquidity -Why stablecoins are not eurodollars -How they threaten bank credit creation -Why stablecoins empower governments as credit creators