Macro thoughts. Been doing this a while. Wrong a lot. Most won't care but I just want this down somewhere - as it stands we (USA) are in trouble. Likely recession at best and stagflation at worst (I think 52% odds on Polymarket are far too low) - POTUS was caught off guard because rates went up; he thought thy would decline and cushion the blow of tariffs - which is why he's freaking out on Jerome Powell to lower rates and also why he instituted the 90d tariff relaxation period when the bond market sold off (yields higher) - lowering rates now would be monumentally idiotic given inflation expectations at astronomically high levels (thanks tariffs) - Powell doing exactly what he should be doing. Market trusts him - So what now for Trump? I think his meeting with Wal-Mart/Target/Home Depot yesterday was a major turning point in his thinking (witness his softening comments last night on both Powell and China) - I expect deals as soon as possible with Japan/India and maybe UK. Bessent said tonight they're less worried about currency intervention in Japan, which is a significant softening IMO - He needs to save face and there are few paths out of this that allow him to do so - Odds of black swan events have risen substantially, though still very low - He will start losing party support any day now and it's going to get ugly inside those halls - This is his Waterloo. It's one of the biggest own goals I have ever witnessed Best guess? Risk assets are going lower. Possibly a lot lower. I expect gold/BTC to continue to do well. Hopefully some of the other majors too. Stay safe. Keep building; we'll come back from this. Oh and art is a great hedge during times like these 😉