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This is a very levelheaded take on Bitcoin treasury companies.

30.6.2025
I get how if you squint, leveraged public bitcoin treasury co's can kinda look like "this cycle's shitcoins". But I think this analogy is doing us a disservice.
Really, we have to step back and think through "why are they outperforming?".
I believe it is because they can tap these huge pools of equity and debt that are not normally accessible to individuals and private co's. Or in other words, there are fiat and regulatory arbitrages that they are using. For example, pools of capital that are mandated to only invest in certain kinds of things, or for tax reasons it's advantageous to buy public equities vs ETFs or directly buying BTC.
And those arbitrages exist between now and hyperbitcoinization (who knows, but it could be 20 or 30 years out). Bitcoin is say $2T now in a world of $1000T of assets, and in 20 years it could 100x to around $200T in a world of $3000-$4000T of assets.
Will there people who get rekt buying the top? Sure, just like in every past bitcoin cycle.
Will there be poorly managed leveraged treasury co's? Also yes, some may get rekt in a bear cycle if they take on bad credit terms, or overleverage, or some other kind of governance failure. Or who knows, the custodian fails or the government seizes their coins etc. But I also believe the well managed ones will survive thru the bear and bull seasons to come.
When an investor buys shares in these, do they control the underlying bitcoin? No, what they hold is SHARES in the company. The public company (because of the fiat arbitrage) is able to achieve greater bitcoin yields than most individuals and private co's can.
Of course, holding bitcoin in self custody is safest IMO. But I believe these leveraged treasury co's can outperform bitcoin, WITH added risk. Some people may be comfortable with that added risk, others may not. It's also not an all or nothing proposition. You can decide to have some mix of self custody BTC and some exposure to treasury co's.
Bottom line, I think a lot of the bitcoiners criticising these leveraged public treasury co's may not recognise that they simply aren't the target market. If all you want to do is earn your salary or do your business and stack BTC to cold storage, totally fair enough. But understand that there are lots of investors and pools of capital who either can't just stack BTC to cold storage, or they WANT the increased risk and return potential of leveraged public treasury co's.
tl;dr public treasury co's can access cheaper capital than individuals and private co's can, and this is where the outperformance comes from.
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