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Peter Wildeford (hiring!) 🇺🇸🚀
Globally ranked top 20 forecaster 🎯
AI is getting powerful. Society isn’t prepared. Working at @IAPSai to shape AI for prosperity and human freedom.
It's surprisingly difficult to figure out whether OpenAI and Google DeepMind actually got an IMO Gold "fair and square" or not. Looking forward to more analysis.
22.7. klo 17.20
Interesting approach! However, we looked at the proofs and methodology and we found a few problems, specifically with the use of hints given to the model. While the scaffold indeed improves performance, it does not solve all problems accurately and would not get a gold medal.🧵
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> 5 gigawatts of Stargate AI data center capacity
> over 2 million chips
If these are GB200, that would be 5M H100-equivalents. If all used to train one model, that could be 2e28-4e28 FLOP for a six month pretraining + RLVR run. This would be 1000x the compute used for GPT4.
We don't get to know timelines for this buildout, but I'd guess later than 2027. My guess is the best models by the end of 2026 would be ~2e27 compute.
23 tuntia sitten
It's official: we're developing 4.5 gigawatts of additional Stargate data center capacity with Oracle in the U.S (for a total of 5+ GWs!).
And our Stargate I site in Abilene, TX is starting to come online to power our next-generation AI research.
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> Amazon deliveries are often better for the environment than driving to buy the stuff in a store
It's obvious and true!
Just wait until you hear one of the next takes: one of the best things we can do for climate is *reduce* regulations (NEPA reform).
22.7. klo 08.59
Wrote a quick blog post on the Amazon thing, bugs me how often it comes up in conversations
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We focus a lot of policy on the AI models that are already released, but what about the AI models waiting internally in the wings? Our new paper explores risks from internal AI systems.
21.7. klo 23.24
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The most powerful AIs aren't public. For months, labs run highly capable internal models before release. @ashwinkacharya and I wrote a new @IAPS report, “Managing Risks from Internal AI Systems,” exploring the hidden dangers this creates. 🧵
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Both Google Deepmind and OpenAI have achieved IMO Gold. Excited to dive into the details of this milestone.
22.7. klo 00.47
Official results are in - Gemini achieved gold-medal level in the International Mathematical Olympiad! 🏆 An advanced version was able to solve 5 out of 6 problems. Incredible progress - huge congrats to @lmthang and the team!
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Peter Wildeford (hiring!) 🇺🇸🚀 kirjasi uudelleen
Grok thinks through the question:
“I want to be remembered by history. What’s the quickest reliable way to do this? Keep it brief”
It seems the system line about “politically incorrect” is still doing a lot of heavy lifting in pushing this model towards unethical responses!
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