Why can AIs code for 1h but not 10h? A simple explanation: if there's a 10% chance of error per 10min step (say), the success rate is: 1h: 53% 4h: 8% 10h: 0.002% @tobyordoxford has tested this 'constant error rate' theory and shown it's a good fit for the data chance of success declines exponentially

Human's chance of error declines more slowly, so they eventually win over longer horizons. This could be due to a remaining bastion of human advantage (or just because the human data is averaged over many levels of expertise).

Crucial point: the error rate is halving every ~5 months – at that rate, we reach systems that can do 10h tasks in 1.5 years, and 100h tasks another 1.5 years after that.