The Israeli-Iraq conflict, the Great Beauty Act, the extension of tariffs to August 1, and the market's expectation of interest rate cuts have boosted (Trump has pressured Powell in various ways), and the U.S. stock market has been doing well in the past two weeks. However, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has gone from 4.1% to more than 4.4%, and is close to the threshold of 4.6%. As we talked about in May, 4.6% is the threshold (or threshold) of the 10-year Treasury yield, and the higher it goes, the greater the market pressure, and the market will still have support below this threshold. Ignoring expectations of interest rate cuts, US10y turned upward, and the bond market hinted that it was worth paying attention to. The possible factors are: 1) Although the tariff deadline has been postponed, the negotiation process with various countries that has recently flowed out has not been smooth.In the past two days, Trump announced that he would raise tariffs on Canada, and in the tariffs on Brazil, political issues were included (by raising tariffs to pressure Brazil's trial of former President Bolsonaro, Bolsonaro was considered a Latin American ally of Trump in the last term), these behaviors still make bond market institutions not at ease; 2) Next week is the key point of the June CPI data, when can we see the impact of the 10% tariffs that have been implemented on inflation? Bond market institutions hedged in advance As mentioned above, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is now close to the threshold, but there is still a long way to go, and it is not yet time to face the enemy, but we need to pay attention to the follow-up trend.