The macro regime continues to push capital out the risk curve as the credit cycle is in full swing We have not even seen the final move yet, and everything is setting up for this Let's dig in 🧵👇

We have seen a significant compression in credit spreads as inflation swaps have rallied What does this mean? Recession risk decreased but inflation risk has been increasing. In this type of environment the Fed should be way tighter, especially with inflation above 2% and the last CPI print showing acceleration.

What is the Fed doing though? They are sitting on their hands and using the excuse of "path dependent language. As real rates on the short end fall, this is pushing assets like Bitcoin UP

I have been laying out this dynamic in the credit cycle videos which can be found here:

This will continue to push Bitcoin up until the Fed has to overcorrect and the economy starts feeling the pressure of higher yields, once these overlap, there will be massive selling pressure in BTC. These drivers for BTC have been laid out here:

Until the unwind begins, i am holding all longs I have opened:

All of this is setting up for FOMC which I laid out how to think about it here:

The most recent report is here laying everything out and I will be expanding on this further today:

@profplum99 @Dionysus_666 well yeah been long with leverage if we make a top here, I will get stopped out in the money still so Im just holding winners at this point any thoughts on ES or ZN returns post FOMC? whatcha thinking for the trade?