Some important things for macro flows this week: 🧵 We remain in a regime where stocks are skewed to the upside and bonds are skewed to the downside. Within this skew, we are going to see traders begin to get positioned for FOMC. Between now and FOMC, the major prints are the JOLTS and ADP print

Irrespective of popular narratives, we know there isn't significant weakening in the labor market as the last JOLTS and NFP prints causes selling pressure in long duration bonds We are likely to remain below the NFP level as we progress into FOMC

This entire idea that Powell is going to be fired is so overblown. People are talking about it because they have nothing else to focus on. Economists are focused on the Powell "firing" and the problems in the housing market again

The bigger issue is the inflation risk and the fact that the Fed is holding a neutral stance

I laid out how this inflation risk and the Fed's stance is one of the primary drivers in the current melt up we are seeing. This is sowing the seeds for future volatility