So here is a forecast, which can be tested against subsequent data. Swiss pharma companies will reduce the customs value of their goods exports (lowering Swiss export and US imports), do more fill and finish in the US and increase their service exports to the US ...

Swiss pharma exports are (best I can tell) primarily from Swiss and EU companies. The US companies use Ireland and Singapore and PR (per their 10-ks) much more. So long as pharma tariffs were zero, there was no disincentive to "bundling" the goods production and the IP charge

But I don't think Swiss tax law penalizes exporting services over exporting goods, and it is (relatively) easy to change the companies internal structure so as to avoid much of the tariff (on goods not services) in a way that reduces goods trade

I at least find the natural experiment here to be interesting, as I suspect it will reveal a lot about companies' tax planning (as did the end of the double Irish in 19/20)