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Looking at the macro perspective, I think we should pay more attention to data that affects the medium-term trends. There are many economic data points released weekly, but many of them are not important; at most, they only cause intraday fluctuations. The main points to focus on are:
1. The U.S. stock market trades on EPS growth; everything else is fake. If EPS growth is good, it naturally matches a high PE ratio. Looking at the second-quarter earnings reports, AI is accelerating rather than slowing down, and the efficiency of big tech is clearly improving.
2. The discussion about consumer downgrade has been ongoing for several quarters, but overall consumption remains strong. The growth in consumption includes real consumption and inflation. Inflation is a product of an overheated economy. The market can trade stagnation, but I don't see a need to worry about stagnation.
3. The Federal Reserve is in a rate-cutting cycle.
That's all I can think of for now; the rest is just noise and micro-level details.
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