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How much Energy to Train AGI? ☀️🔋
- Current record: GPT‑4’s full training run ≈ 55 GWh
- AGI‑class system (≈ 100 million H100‑equivalent GPUs) projected annual training power draw ≈ 613,000 GWh
- Four orders of magnitude difference
- 2031-2035 is best estimate
Energy is a core dependency to AGI
Caveats
1/ AI could lead to energy breakthroughs. This is recursive self improvement in a different form since its improving the underlying training making timelines shorter.
2/ Inference will be a huge demand for GPUs. Training doesn't get all GPUs. This will make timelines longer.
H/T great convos with @KSimback
Link to ChatGPT Question:

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