🚨 THREAD: Can Everyone Really Become an Entrepreneur in the Age of AI? @amasad, CEO of @Replit, drops a bold claim: “The future, where AI is headed, is everyone's going to become an entrepreneur.” 🤔 Have we finally found an AGI-resistant career path? I'm skeptical. Read on…

The $trillion question is: What differentiates humans from AIs in tomorrow's economy? Are average people suddenly going to have jobs as paradigm-shifting geniuses… Or are more & more of us falling “below the waterline” of AI workers who can be our drop-in replacements? 🌊

Replit’s AI agent feature lets anyone be a product manager of an increasingly talented "AI engineer". This is incredibly cool, but how long will it last? When we reach the point where AI can code, brainstorm, and even invent products… what’s left for the average Joe or Jane?

Amjad says AI is only “like a massive remixing machine. It can remix all the information it learned and you can generate a lot of really interesting ideas.” So, is remixing a robust barrier between AIs and humans? AI won't ever match the “true creativity” we bring to our jobs?

Here’s where it gets blurry: Amjad claims AI can’t “shift paradigms” or “invent novel ideas”, like “going from Newtonian physics to quantum mechanics.” But what does this high-level handwaving mean in practice? What feats of novelty do regular people *actually* do at work?

Once all the “non-novel” jobs get automated, why won’t AI just become a better novel-idea-brainstormer, too? Why would Gus from the sales department at the used car lot have an edge against a million AIs dreaming up niche businesses at scale?

Enter the consciousness debate! Amjad leans on Roger Penrose’s philosophy: Humans are special because of our consciousness. Personally, I don't see how this helps Gus from the used car lot, unless the time he fixed the office soda machine required consciousness-powered novelty.

Joe Rogan is hopeful: “There’s something to us that’s different…” But the receipts don’t add up. AI writes stories, designs art, makes music. Why should we trust that creativity is a moat around the human brain?

Even Amjad admits that routine desk jobs, Quality Assurance, and anything “repetitive” are toast. His optimism is that folks will “reskill” to prompt AIs, folks will “be more creative,” and somehow ride the AI wave. But how long before AI automates their prompting, too? 🤷‍♂️

So, what’s the REAL future? I do agree with Amjad that we're at least in a temporary window where entrepreneurial humans can earn money by leveraging new AI-powered tools. But I can't ignore the elephant in the room: Won't AI ultimately out-entrepreneur us, too?

I have a LOT of thoughts beyond the scope of this thread. Listen to my full analysis by searching “Doom Debates” in your podcast player, or watch on YouTube: