It’s been 24 hours since Kaito announced Espresso as its first Launchpad project. Besides concerns about FDV and Vesting Terms, there are still many people defending it. But they forget the most important thing. It's not about whether Espresso is good. It's about what price you're paying to find out. Let's review some information: Espresso’s raise history: - 2020: Seed round (~$2M) - 2022: Series A (~$30M) - 2024: Series B (~$28M) - 2025: Launchpad public round with $400M FDV That means: - Seed investors have been in for 5 years - Series A VCs for 3 years - And they’ve likely seen no liquidity (token not launched until 2025) In the VC world especially in crypto. 3–5 years without an exit is already pushing the limits of partner patience and fund performance pressure. --- So what happens? If insiders can’t sell equity (since there’s no acquisition or IPO), they need an alternative liquidity path: → Answer: The token launch But to make this token launch work for them: - It needs a high FDV, so their token allocations are worth something big on paper - But the retail buyers can’t feel rugged so they design: → 0% TGE for private rounds → 1-year cliff, then linear vesting over 12 months This looks good optically: “See? Insiders can’t dump at TGE. We’re protecting you.” But functionally, what it really does is: - Push risk onto public round participants - Lock insider tokens during the hype cycle, but prepare a runway for exit just as the hype cools So while VCs don’t exit immediately, this design gives them a clear glide path with FDV set high enough to hit fund-returning multiples if price holds anywhere near launch levels. --- Why This Matters Most public buyers think: “0% TGE = safe from dumps” But they forget: - They’re buying in at the top of the valuation curve - With a 2-year vesting window ahead of them - While earlier VCs already 5–10x'd on paper and will be ready to sell into any strength once cliff ends --- Not saying Espresso is a bad project. But let’s be real: You’re not “early” here. You’re exit liquidity, just politely delayed over 2 years. Not financial advice, but know what you’re buying.