Why is the four-year cycle dead? 1) The forces that have created prior four-year cycles are weaker: i) The halving is half as important every four years; ii) The interest rate cycle is positive for crypto, not negative (as it was in 2018 and 2022); iii) Blow-up risk is attenuated, due to improving regulation and the institutionalization of the space; The biggest emergent cyclical-style risk is the rise of Treasury companies, which bears watching and is significant. 2) There are bigger forces moving on timelines that don't sync with the prior four-year cycle: i) The movement of assets into ETFs is a 5-10 year trend. It started in 2024; ii) Broader institutional adoption is just getting started (ETFs still being approved on national account platforms, pensions and endowments just now considering crypto, etc.) iii) Regulatory progress began in earnest in January 2025 and will run for multiple years; iv) Wall Street is just now starting to build on crypto, and will invest billions in the quarters and years to come. This started in earnest with the passage of the Genius Act this month. All this suggests to me that the long-term pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the classic "four-year cycle" forces, to the extent those exist, and that 2026 will be a good year. I could be wrong, and I'm certain there will be significant volatility. And I think it's more "sustained steady boom" than super-cycle. But I broadly think we're in for a good few years. Great convo with @kyle_chasse