I love @sparkdotfi, but at current levels, it feels seriously overpriced. With $SPK trading at $0.14, that puts its FDV at around $1.4B. Sure, Spark is one of the few apps with clear PMF and real revenues, but there are a couple of things the market seems to be missing. 1. Spark vs Sky Revenue Split If you look at Spark’s official dashboard, it shows $244M in annualized revenue. Sounds great, right? But here’s the catch: most of that revenue actually flows to Sky, not Spark. Why? Because Spark operates using capital that @SkyEcosystem "allocates" to it. Spark is essentially borrowing capital from Sky to generate yield, and it only keeps a small portion of that yield. Right now, everything still flows to Sky, but that’s changing soon. According to Spark’s own numbers, they’re currently generating a 5.71% effective yield on $4.2B in capital “borrowed” from Sky. Sky will soon begin charging a Base Rate of 4.37%, which means: - 77% of Spark’s revenue will go to Sky - Only 23% will stay with Spark PS: This is "incentivized" Base Rate for Spark. Because BR is meant to be 30bps above the SSR. So in theory, the rate should be 4.8%, not 4.37% — meaning even less revenue stays with Spark once that adjustment kicks in. Keep in mind, these rates change often. Best to follow SP-BEAM updates on the Sky forum to stay in the loop. 2. $SKY Owns 65% of SPK Supply This is a big one that many seem to overlook. Sky holds 65% of SPK’s total supply. Why does that matter? Because a higher SPK valuation increases the incentive value for USDS and SKY stakers. In simple terms, the higher SPK goes, the less Sky has to spend on staking and savings rewards — which means higher profits for Sky. Now compare valuations: Spark FDV: $1.4B Sky FDV: $2.7B Does that make sense when Sky owns 65% of SPK’s tokens and 80% of its revenues? Not really. A repricing between $SPK and $SKY feels inevitable. This kind of mispricing shows just how early we still are and how inefficient markets can be, even in projects with real traction. The upside? There's a lot of alpha still hiding in plain sight.
1,59K