Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says Bitcoin's traditional four-year halving cycle no longer drives the crypto market. He argues that structural changes like spot ETFs, institutional adoption, and regulatory clarity are now setting the pace for growth. In an X post, Hougan wrote that halving events have "half the impact every four years." Supply shocks that once triggered big rallies now matter less in a market shaped by deepening capital flows. He pointed to 2024’s launch of spot ETFs as a key shift. Hougan believes this has sparked a 5–10 year wave of capital migration from pensions, endowments, and retail investors through traditional platforms. With interest rates turning favorable and crypto infrastructure becoming more robust, Hougan says risk of major collapses is fading. However, he warned that crypto treasury firms could present a new form of market risk. He also cited the 2025 GENIUS Act as a major catalyst, unlocking Wall Street’s involvement in crypto. Many firms are still building out ETF access, suggesting the inflow is just getting started. Hougan doesn’t expect smooth sailing. He predicts volatility will remain, but sees 2026 as a strong year driven by real capital—not hype. The era of "super cycles," he says, is giving way to steady, sustained growth.