"How to steal billions and billions of dollars and get away with it" a thread 🧵👇

Figma priced at $33, closed $115 (+250%). Circle priced at $31, closed $83 (+168%). Books were 40× oversubscribed: that’s mis-pricing, not “beating expectations." That's 4.8B skimmed pocketed by a chosen few.

Bankers book-build → pick who gets shares → set the offer after markets close → stock opens next a.m. Any first-day “pop” goes to the chosen few, while the issuer still wires 7 % of gross proceeds to the syndicate.

According to Prof. Jay Ritter’s database, U.S. operating-company IPOs 2015-2024 left ≈ $110 B on the table— over 10 % of total proceeds. 2020 alone set a modern record at >$50 B.

“Lots of banks handle IPOs though…” Nope. Of ~3,200 FINRA broker-dealers, only ≈200 got their name on any cover in the last decade, and a mere ≈85 ever ran lead-left. The top 11 banks captured ~¾ of all proceeds 2012-24.

Bulge bracket investment banking is a select club: SEC BD licence ✔️ FINRA fees ✔️ $250k net-cap ✔️ DTCC seat ✔️ Fed/Basel capital (if you’re in a BHC) ✔️ blue-sky filings in 50 states ✔️ The revolving door between regulators and the regulated has been extensively documented elsewhere.

There is a simpler playbook • Google’s 2004 Dutch auction • Spotify, Coinbase direct listings • On-chain Dutch auctions or AMMs (24/7, global, auditable price curve) All price in real-time demand, no 7 % toll, no selective allocations.

But direct listings ≠ free lunch. Reg-M limits marketing, still requires two years of audited financials & SEC review. The choke-point is promotion, which keeps the banking cartel in charge of mind-share: You’re allowed to do an auction but you can’t tell anyone that it’s happening or even explain what they’re bidding on.

Regulators play a critical role in protecting American investors. The dotcom crash, largely attributed to loose listing requirements, saw the Nasdaq decline 78%. But safeguarding markets also means holding our systems accountable. Today, the IPO process is a silent tax on American innovation.