Announcing: Compass Intelligence! Weekly housing market data and video from me in my new role as chief economist for @Compass This week: Two big trends for the real estate market in the second half of 2025. 🧵👇 1/7

2/ First thing to note: Home Sales Home sales volumes, which have been below 2024 levels all year, are about to turn positive in the headlines. The weekly pending sales numbers have been averaging about 5% greater than last year for a couple months.

3/ Inventory Even as sales tick up, inventory continues to rise. 28% more homes on the market nationally than last year. 857,000 single family homes unsold. Up 1.2% for the week. Nationally, the market is back to the old-normal/pre-pandemic levels of inventory.

4/ Home Prices As a result of growing inventory, home prices are just 1% above last year at this time. Median price is $395,000 now. The leading indicators of future sales prices are still weak so that implies that we could see negative home price changes for 2025.

5/ Price Reductions For the leading indicators of future sales prices, we look at the price reductions now. Currently 41.4% of the homes on the market have taken a price cut. Up 70bp for the week. That signals continued price pressures through the rest of the year at least.

6/ The story of the last three years has been "home sales are down, but home prices are up" But the second half of 2025 looks to flip that script. Home sales are (finally) ticking up, and price pressures are (finally) pushing down.